Remember the phrase we kept hearing last year? “Survive until ’25.” Well, here we are. And for many business owners, the reality is… we’re still in survival mode.
But there’s a new version doing the rounds now — and it’s got a bit more edge: “Don’t get the shits before ’26.” In other words, yes, things are still hard but now’s not the time to panic or lose your nerve. It’s about holding steady, staying sharp, and making smart calls under pressure.
If you’re looking for a no-nonsense take on the NZ business outlook for 2025, based on real conversations and what’s actually happening on the ground not just headlines this is for you.
From Whakatāne to the wider Eastern Bay, business owners are saying the same thing: demand’s inconsistent, costs are sticky, confidence is shaky but we’re still here. That in itself is worth acknowledging.
So how do you hang on now, and put yourself in a stronger spot for what comes next? Here’s what I’m seeing and what it means for your business
Growth Is Sluggish – Confidence Is Fragile
The economy shrank 0.9% in the June quarter. That’s what economists call a contraction basically, we produced less than the previous quarter. It’s not catastrophic, but it means we’re still not gaining speed.
On the ground, business owners tell me leads are slower, sales are patchy, and there’s not much appetite for risk. Everything feels harder like pushing a wheelbarrow full of wet concrete uphill. In gumboots.
What to do?
- Focus on what’s working your reliable revenue, your loyal customers.
- Don’t overextend hold cash where you can.
- Say no more often especially to unprofitable work.
Inflation’s Still a Pain – Even If It’s “Cooling”
Inflation’s sitting around 2.7%. That’s technically within the Reserve Bank’s target but let’s be honest, your grocery bill hasn’t dropped.
Inflation is just the rate prices are going up. So while it might not be as fast as last year, prices are still climbing. That means your customers are feeling the pinch — and it shows in their spending.
Business owners I talk to are noticing the hesitancy. People are still buying, but only when they’re convinced it’s worth it.
So:
- Make your value clear don’t assume people get it.
- Help them say yes bundles, options, or simple service.
- Stay visible especially if your competition is going quiet.
Local Businesses Can’t Out-Advertise – But You Can Out-Serve
Here’s something we talk about a lot around here: you can’t beat the big guys on advertising budget. But you can out-care them.
In Whakatāne and the Eastern Bay, relationships still matter. People want to deal with people — not faceless chains. Use that.
- Know names.
- Follow up.
- Be consistent.
Every experience is an opportunity to make someone feel like they matter and that builds trust. Which builds repeat business. Which builds resilience.
Hiring Is Tight — So Work With What You’ve Got
Unemployment’s crept up. Job ads are down. And some businesses are freezing hiring altogether.
The flip side? Good people are staying put. If you’ve got a solid team, keep them. If you’re under pressure, look at upskilling or redeploying.
A few smart operators I’ve spoken to are doubling down on training. Not expensive courses just investing time in making their team sharper. That’ll pay off when things turn.
Don’t Wait for the Government to Bail You Out
Yes, there’s the “Investment Boost” tax break for new equipment. And yes, there are some targeted supports floating around. But let’s be real policy changes won’t save your margins.
If a grant fits your plans, grab it. Just don’t build your survival plan on something you can’t control.
Focus on what you can do today:
- Tighten your operations.
- Lock in your pricing strategy.
- Back yourself with data.
Final Word: Don’t Get the Shits Before ’26
You made it this far. And that counts.
Now it’s about finishing the year with your head up and your business steady. That doesn’t mean going big. It means going smart.
Remember:
- You don’t need to grow right now — but don’t shrink unnecessarily.
- Be ready to move when confidence returns.
- Talk to your advisor before it feels urgent.
This is what survival looks like in 2025. It’s not flashy. But it’s effective. And it’s what gets you through.
Want to pressure test your numbers or gut check your next move? Let’s chat — no jargon, no pressure, no half muffins.